Everybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now.
Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China.
China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea.
Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future.
A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan becomes a recognised country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.
What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?
edit: Damn there are crazies in both ends of the arguments. I really don’t think giving Taiwan nukes would help solve the problem.
I think the current best solution, looking at the more reasonable and realistic comments, seems to be to maintain the status quo, at least until both sides of the strait are able to come into some sort of agreement (which seems to be worlds away right now given their current very opposing stances on the issue)
So what? The opinion of people on the mainland is also due to how the ruling party of the PRC has shaped public opinion since they took power too. Does that somehow devalue opinion polls coming from there?
So the opinion of the Taiwanese now should be ignored because of how their opinion emerged and they should be taken by force?
They don’t have to be “rapid separatists” in order to not want to join the PRC. More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese. China also very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that’s likely to temper many responses.
What do you want people on Taiwan, born and raised and educated there to do about that? They can only speak for how they feel now, and if most of them don’t want to join the PRC - what is your point here? I can be aware of the history, but that doesn’t mean that what the people of Taiwan think now should be thrown away.
Previously, the dictatorship stopped the people of Taiwan rejoining if they so chose to. Now it’s the own people there. The USA couldn’t really do much if the population truly desired to join China.
Ok, listen you’re arguing about a bunch of irrelevant bullshit. You asked a question about why Taiwan exists in its current form. The answer is yes: the United States is why. They froze the civil war, protected the KMT, and spent decades shaping the island against the PRC. Feelings, polls, and identities don’t change that causal reality. I don’t personally care whether Taiwan reunifies or not(outside of political interest and it would be nice seeing the US lose it’s unsinkable carrier) it has zero impact on my daily life. I was answering your question about history. If you don’t like the answer and want to pivot to vibes and hypotheticals, that’s on you.
But the reality now is what matters to me. I personally support Taiwanese self-determination because it’s what the people who live there now seem to want via continuation of the status quo, or official independence.
But that wasn’t the question and the reality now is a direct result of history. Please stop this trolling bullshit circular argument and actually read what you asked and what I said. I’m not arguing Taiwan being independent is good or bad or that they should reunify or any of this bullshit you’re pretending I am. I answered your question about US influence the fact you took it as an attack on Taiwan is completely in your own head.
The original post of mine that you replied to was where I said this to someone else:
“So you think the only reason that Taiwan has not merged into the PRC is because the USA forbids it?”
You replied that US propping up the dictatorship was the reason they haven’t merged at a time in the past is technically true, but not really relevant as it was still the dictatorship calling the shots there, and at any point could’ve surrendered - but chose not to. It was more the USA as a powerful global force offering support to the regime to protect them against the PRC, and then further supporting them economically to maintain attitudes to continued separation and independence. And certainly now, certainly in this time period - if Taiwan were to just fold and ask to be annexed into the PRC, there really is nothing the USA could do about it.
Please read my replies you clearly don’t understand them.
Already did.
Clearly not
Yes, I did. I disagree with your historical framing in some ways - but that’s besides the point because the Taiwanese people do not want to join China now.
This motherfucker just spent 40 comments telling me that the reality now is irrelevant because hypothetically, if the geopolitical realities were completely different, the Taiwanese people would support independence.
I think many of them do support it now, that’s the point. They accept status quo given the existing pressures, but if that changed, they would likely move for official independence.
So then, they don’t support changing it now, but would if the geopolitical realities were completely different.
Jesus christ in heaven! Do words mean anything to you?
They don’t support pushing for it now because of the risk of inciting a war with China, but a clear majority do not wish to enjoin with the PRC - and many more people in those same polls express support for moving towards independence as compared to pro-unification, and I suspect strongly that the fear of antagonising China suppresses many more would-be pro-independence supporters from expressing their true position on this.
I don’t know that the argument that effectively represents China as an aggressor here as the reason many Taiwanese don’t officially support moving to independence is particularly impressive one, personally.
Cool! So they don’t support it now. So is the “the reality now” what matters to you or not?
I don’t give a shit about whatever you just said.
I know I, and anyone with an ounce of sanity, including the vast majority of the Taiwanese people (whose opinions you completely disregard), think it would be completely insane to start WWIII just based on some point of pride, instead of enjoying the continued peace that the status quo has provided for decades.
What if the geopolitical realities were completely different, and there was no risk of WWIII? What if the geopolitical realities were different, and the US hadn’t intervened in the situation in the ways they did historically?
In response to the latter you claim that “the reality now is what I care about,” but then you go on and on and on about how important it is to imagine what people would want in the former hypothetical, instead of looking at what they actually do want in the reality now.
Because of Chinese intimidation and threats. Many more who voted for a flat ‘status quo’ option absolutely would wish for China to back off so they could officially become independent and a recognised nation. That is my contention.
A good thing that I didn’t say that they should then. As unreasonable as China is being here, I’ve never once said that the Taiwanese should declare independence because of the actual risk of the Chinese reaction.
There’s good reason to believe, as I’ve indicated to you in many other replies that many Taiwanese right now, as it is now, would like to push for independence but don’t feel it viable so the polling reflects that. I think that, if true (and to be clear - I think it is) is reason to believe that it ultimately commands a majority.