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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: April 30th, 2024

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  • Just maintain the status quo indefinitely. That’s what most people in Taiwan want, and the status quo has maintained peace for what, 70 years? It could last another 70 years if we let it.

    China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs

    Is it? China has maintained it’s formal claim of Taiwan for decades but hasn’t actually moved on it, even when it’s foreign policy was much more extreme and interventionist. I don’t see a reason to think they intend to deviate from this policy.

    Sure, they do saber-rattling. But this is generally in response to the US increasingly deviating from the policy of strategic ambiguity in recent years (which the news doesn’t generally report on as such). China right now is “winning the peace,” they are growing in power every year (economically, diplomatically, etc) while the US burns itself out getting involved in every military conflict it can find. They have no reason to jeopardize that by forcing the issue, though how they would respond to deviations from the status quo (like formal recognition) is hard to predict. Trying to call bluffs is often how wars happen.

    Is there a reason why Taiwan needs formal recognition? Is there suddenly something wrong with the compromise that has kept the peace for so long? They are functionally independent already. It seems like it’s just a matter of pride, just words on a page. Materially, it would make no difference in their lives. Is that worth potentially starting WWIII over?

    What I find terrifying is that most USians don’t seem to know or care about strategic ambiguity. They are so easily worked up into a war frenzy, and keep trying to act like some kind of superhero who never has to make compromises or accept imperfect solutions, who instantly understands any situation at first glance. Continuing to apply this mentality as the US declines is going to lead to more and more conflicts with reality, and I’m frankly terrified at what my countrymen might decide to do when faced with the collapse of their superhero fantasies.