We’re forced to speculate due to a lack of insider knowledge

You mean you want people to believe unsubstantiated claims that lack evidence?

but we can use context clues like the fact that other nations are using social media for the same purpose and it originating in China, a fellow world superpower, to reason that they would be using it for similar purposes. Why wouldn’t they be using an effective tool like this? This stuff isn’t being created for altruistic reasons.

Still don’t see any argument that justifies substituting “could/would” with “is” except vague notion of “we do it, so they’re definitely doing it”

this claim is totally different from “TikTok is Chinese propaganda”.

“Could/Would” is not the same as “is”