The other, and more likely scenario is that Israel pushed the US into this war despite the US not being well equipped for it. This whole idea that the US is playing 4D chess is a really unlikely scenario in my opinion. Just look at Ukraine, plenty of people predicted that it would be a disaster, but the US decided to dive into it anyways. There was no master plan there. They had a hare brained scheme to try and crush Russia’s economy, and when it predictably failed, they had no idea what to do after. I expect this will play out much the same way.
That’s probably a subset of 2c. Israel sees the state of the grand chessboard and acts from a position of weakness, changing the state of play and requiring the US to act from a position of weakness.
But as always with us, Yog, I will caution that we should be actively seeking evidence to invalidate our hypotheses and current expectations so that we have a mor clear eyed picture of the ongoing processes.
Naturally, we’ll have to wait a bit to see what actually happens. All we can do in the meantime is go by past experience. I think Ukraine is very illustrative here, and we can also look at Yemen and how that played out. My impression is that the US made another blunder, but obviously I can’t know that for sure right now.
The other, and more likely scenario is that Israel pushed the US into this war despite the US not being well equipped for it. This whole idea that the US is playing 4D chess is a really unlikely scenario in my opinion. Just look at Ukraine, plenty of people predicted that it would be a disaster, but the US decided to dive into it anyways. There was no master plan there. They had a hare brained scheme to try and crush Russia’s economy, and when it predictably failed, they had no idea what to do after. I expect this will play out much the same way.
That’s probably a subset of 2c. Israel sees the state of the grand chessboard and acts from a position of weakness, changing the state of play and requiring the US to act from a position of weakness.
But as always with us, Yog, I will caution that we should be actively seeking evidence to invalidate our hypotheses and current expectations so that we have a mor clear eyed picture of the ongoing processes.
Naturally, we’ll have to wait a bit to see what actually happens. All we can do in the meantime is go by past experience. I think Ukraine is very illustrative here, and we can also look at Yemen and how that played out. My impression is that the US made another blunder, but obviously I can’t know that for sure right now.