Sixteen bets made $100,000 accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down. They did.
These bets and other well-timed wagers accurately predicted the precise timing of major developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers and experts over potential insider trading.
Betting – once largely siloed to sporting events – has now spread to include contracts on news events where insider information could give some traders an advantage.
The proliferation of online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has allowed bets on virtually any news event. It’s also easier than ever to buy commodity derivatives like oil futures, where traders gamble on what the price of oil will be in the future.
Leaders of some US federal agencies and some members of Congress said they want to crack down on suspicious trading taking place across different marketplaces, but it’s unclear how much leeway regulators will make.
“Is the problem that we don’t have legislation or that we don’t have enforcement capabilities?” said Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University. “To have a law that can’t really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it’s sort of putting the cart before the horse.”
It’s funny because they think they are just going to get to keep their ill gotten gains and nothing will happen after that.
Oh yeah, that is a core MAGA trait: they NEVER think about Step 2, or Consequences.
Like when he bombed Iran, and said it was over in the first hour. Then a few weeks later, he was on TV saying “Who knew that they’d shoot back?” Literally EVERYBODY knew! That’s why all those weak, cowardly past presidents, not any other world power, did what Trump allowed Israel to do, and bully him into the stupidest war in American history, and that’s saying something.
They think their overwhelming force, ferocious intimidation, and God’s blessing, will force everyone to bow to their Divine Might, and they are constantly surprised when they get slapped across the face. As it turns out, they are arrogantly inept, and it’s obvious to absolutely everybody. We’re fighting against them as hard as possible (or some of us, not S & J), but it’s pretty clear that they’ll eventually collapse under the weight of their own virtuosic ignorance.